Wind nowcast — Talamone (Maremma) Data Gathering Phase
Talamone — Data Gathering Phase
Primo spot Tirreno centro-nord del portfolio. Live METAR LIRS Grosseto (~20 km NE retrocosta) + upstream Argentario/Olbia/Figari + forecast Open-Meteo con bias v2 per-regime (21 anni LIRS, 148k pair). Caveat: nessun osservato in-situ baia (gap G02 3-channel WU PWS in recon), niente Kalman o LSTM (v1 NO-GO gate §4 per target proxy). Regime classifier euristico a regole (Libeccio/Maestrale/Ponente/Scirocco/Tramontana). Trattare come viewer experimental.
Now — Grosseto (METAR LIRS)
Wind1.0kts
T19.0°C
P1013hPa
METAR LIRS Grosseto (~20 km NE retrocosta, proxy) · ts 2026-06-09 21:55 UTC
Aggiornato 2026-06-10 00:32 CEST · auto-refresh 2 min
Nowcast Open-Meteo (Talamone)
Forecast con bias locale v2 applicato: regime=calma, -1.14 m/s (n=39003, MAE ref 2.94 kts). Valori 'corrected' affiancati al raw. Caveat: LIRS ~20 km NE retrocosta, bias regionale non micro-baia.
| Offset | Wind raw | Wind corr | Gust | Dir | Press |
|---|
| +30 min | 3.5 kts | 1.3 kts | 5.6 kts | ↓ E 84°° | 1014.7 hPa |
| +60 min | 3.5 kts | 1.3 kts | 5.6 kts | ↓ E 84°° | 1014.7 hPa |
| +90 min | 4.0 kts | 1.8 kts | 6.2 kts | ↓ E 79°° | 1014.2 hPa |
| +120 min | 4.0 kts | 1.8 kts | 6.2 kts | ↓ E 79°° | 1014.2 hPa |
| +180 min | 4.5 kts | 2.3 kts | 7.2 kts | ↓ E 85°° | 1014.0 hPa |
| +360 min | 5.1 kts | 2.8 kts | 8.4 kts | ↓ E 90°° | 1013.4 hPa |
Forecast vs obs LIRS Grosseto (Data Gathering Phase)
| +1h | +2h | +3h | +4h | +6h | +8h |
|---|
| kts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | — |
| src | OM | OM | OM | OM | OM | — |
Obs recenti: 1 kt (-0m)
Regime (euristico)
Regime classificato: Calma (confidence: 100%)
Contesto Tirreno (METAR upstream)
| Station | Wind | Gust | Dir | T | Press | ts UTC |
|---|
| Monte Argentario | 8.0 kts | — | ↓ SE 140°° | 20.0°C | 1016 | 21:55 |
| Olbia/Costa Smeralda | 1.0 kts | — | — | 19.0°C | 1014 | 22:20 |
| Figari-Sud-Corse | 2.0 kts | — | — | 19.0°C | 1014 | 22:30 |
Cosa c'e' sotto
- Live target: METAR LIRS Grosseto (~20 km NE retrocosta, proxy)
- Upstream: LIQO Argentario (635 m, promontorio W), LIEO Olbia (~200 km S, upstream Libeccio profondo), LFKF Figari (~250 km W, upstream Maestrale corridor Bonifacio)
- Forecast: Open-Meteo hourly a 42.55 N / 11.14 E (Baia Talamone)
- Regime classifier: euristico Libeccio (200-240°), Maestrale (290-330°), Ponente termico (250-290° pomeriggio), Scirocco (120-180°), Tramontana (330-30°)
- Correzione locale: bias v2 per-regime (21 anni METAR LIRS 2005-2026, 148k pair, delta mediano per regime). Caveat: LIRS è ~20 km NE retrocosta, bias riflette co-location e orografia Argentario, non il micro-clima baia.
- Cosa manca: obs in-situ baia (gap G02 Q20260418-173 — recon community WU PWS ITOSCANA337 + Davis VTC follow-up LIVE-ONLY), Kalman, LSTM (v1 NO-GO gate §4 per target LIRS proxy, Q174). Vedi docs/spot-audit/talamone.md.
- Piano deploy: docs/plans/talamone-toscana-spot-integration-2026-04-17.md