Wind Forecast 6h · Sottomarina Diga Beta!
Updated 2026-06-10 00:29 CEST · auto-refresh 2 min
BORDERLINE — 11 kts
On the edge, depends on your biggest kite. forecast +1h ≈ 9 kts · +2h ≈ 7 kts
⚠ CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
Convective instability. CAPE=600 J/kg, LI min -0.6.
Now - Diga Sud Chioggia (CPSM)
Wind11.1kts
Gust11.9kts
DirectionESE ↓ 116°
Measured 00:20 CEST
Piattaforma Oceanografica Acqua Alta ismar.cnr.it
Wind 13.0 kts · Gust 14.8 kts · Direction ESE ↓ 110°
Forecast verification · kts
MAE 1.2 ktsBias -1.1 ktsbuono36 coppie · lead +90 min
| +1h | +2h | +3h | +4h | +6h | +8h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kts | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| src | LSTM | LSTM | LSTM | LSTM | LSTM | LSTM |
Obs recenti: 11 kt (-0m), 10 kt (-14m), 11 kt (-19m), 10 kt (-34m), 10 kt (-44m), 10 kt (-49m)
Wind Regime Signals
| Regime | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bora | Δp Padova → Porto Garibaldi | +0.3 hPa |
| Δp Udine → Rimini | +1.1 hPa | |
| Δp Udine → Porto Garibaldi | +1.5 hPa | |
| Δp Ljubljana → Rijeka | +0.8 hPa | |
| Wind Trieste (OSMER) | - | |
| Wind Grado (OSMER) | - | |
| Scirocco | Δp Pula → Bologna | +1.9 hPa |
| Δp Trieste → Bologna | +2.0 hPa | |
| Δp Trieste → Padova | +1.3 hPa | |
| Wind Ancona (METAR) | - | |
| Thermal | Δp Udine → Padova | +1.2 hPa |
| Δp Udine → Venezia | +1.1 hPa | |
| Δp Padova → Venezia | -0.1 hPa | |
| Wind Diga Sud (CPSM) | 11 kt ESE |
Next 16 days · early reliability
★ = reliability (model convergence + proximity). Agreement = how many models call it kiteable (e.g. 3/3 = all agree). Spread ±Xkt = difference between ICON, GFS and Best Match. Beyond 5 days is indicative, not actionable - the forecast will change.
| Day | Quality | Kite hours | Window | Peak | Regime | Agreement | Spread | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 06-09 | no | 0h | 10 kt | scirocco | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Mer 06-10 | no | 0h | 11 kt | termica | 1/3 | ±2kt | ★★☆☆☆ | |
| Gio 06-11 | good | 4h | 10-14 | 14 kt | bora | 3/3 | ±4kt | ★★★☆☆ |
| Ven 06-12 | no | 0h | 11 kt | scirocco | 1/3 | ±4kt | ★★☆☆☆ | |
| Sab 06-13 | no | 0h | 9 kt | scirocco | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Dom 06-14 | no | 0h | 10 kt | termica | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Lun 06-15 | no | 0h | 10 kt | bora | 0/3 | ±1kt | ★★☆☆☆ | |
| Mar 06-16 | no | 0h | 8 kt | bora | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mer 06-17 | no | 0h | 6 kt | termica | 0/3 | ±1kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Gio 06-18 | no | 0h | 7 kt | termica | 0/2 | ±2kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Ven 06-19 | no | 0h | 7 kt | termica | 0/2 | ±1kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Sab 06-20 | no | 0h | 5 kt | termica | 0/2 | ±1kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Dom 06-21 | no | 0h | 6 kt | termica | 1/2 | ±5kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Lun 06-22 | no | 0h | 5 kt | bora | 0/2 | ±4kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mar 06-23 | no | 0h | 6 kt | bora | 0/2 | ±4kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mer 06-24 | good | 5h | 14-19 | 17 kt | bora | 2/2 | ±4kt | ★☆☆☆☆ |
Mer 06-24 is the most promising day: 5h kiteable, peak 17 kts, regime bora.
Recent days when the forecast called it right
Latest sessions where the forecast matched the observed peak within 30% at 3 out of 5 lead times (24h, 12h, 6h, 3h, 1h) and kites were spotted on the webcam. One photo per day, refreshed hourly with the best frame.
Forecast wind issued N hours before the peak:
| 24h out | 12h out | 6h out | 3h out | 1h out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 kts | 12 kts | 11 kts | 12 kts | 13 kts |
Forecast wind issued N hours before the peak:
| 24h out | 12h out | 6h out | 3h out | 1h out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 kts | 12 kts | 11 kts | 17 kts | 28 kts |
Forecast wind issued N hours before the peak:
| 24h out | 12h out | 6h out | 3h out | 1h out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 kts | 12 kts | 10 kts | 8 kts | 14 kts |
Fonti scientifiche
Sintesi commentata della letteratura peer-reviewed sui venti del Nord Adriatico e della laguna di Venezia — regimi Bora e Scirocco, compound flooding, risposta lagunare. Leggi i riassunti delle fonti.
© Luca Adria Wind Nowcasting