Wind Forecast 6h · Sottomarina Diga Beta!
Updated 2026-04-15 20:14 CEST · auto-refresh 2 min
NO — 2 kts
Below threshold, no strengthening signals in the next 2h. forecast +1h ≈ 2 kts · +2h ≈ 3 kts
Forecast atmosferico stabile (CAPE=0 J/kg). Nota: solo proxy forecast, non radar / rete fulmini live.
Now - Diga Sud Chioggia (CPSM)
Wind1.9kts
Gust2.3kts
DirectionSSO ↓ 203°
Measured 20:10 CEST
Piattaforma Oceanografica Acqua Alta ismar.cnr.it
Wind 1.9 kts · Gust 2.1 kts · Direction OSO ↓ 240°
Forecast verification · kts
MAE 1.3 ktsBias +0.5 ktsbuono36 coppie · lead +90 min
Green line = CPSM observed (last 6h, 71 points). Gold = local LSTM nowcast (0-6h). Color bands = kite thresholds. Violet dashed = nowcast issued ~90 min ago (36 points).
Wind Regime Signals
| Regime | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bora | Δp Padova → Porto Garibaldi | +0.0 hPa |
| Δp Udine → Rimini | -0.4 hPa | |
| Δp Udine → Porto Garibaldi | +0.0 hPa | |
| Δp Ljubljana → Rijeka | +1.8 hPa | |
| Wind Trieste (OSMER) | 13 kt ENE | |
| Wind Grado (OSMER) | 6 kt ENE | |
| Scirocco | Δp Pula → Bologna | -0.3 hPa |
| Δp Trieste → Bologna | -0.3 hPa | |
| Δp Trieste → Padova | -0.3 hPa | |
| Wind Ancona (METAR) | - | |
| Thermal | Δp Udine → Padova | +0.0 hPa |
| Δp Udine → Venezia | +0.1 hPa | |
| Δp Padova → Venezia | +0.1 hPa | |
| Wind Diga Sud (CPSM) | 2 kt SSO |
Next 16 days · early reliability
★ = reliability (model convergence + proximity). Agreement = how many models call it kiteable (e.g. 3/3 = all agree). Spread ±Xkt = difference between ICON, GFS and Best Match. Beyond 5 days is indicative, not actionable - the forecast will change.
| Day | Quality | Kite hours | Window | Peak | Regime | Agreement | Spread | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mer 04-15 | no | 0h | 10 kt | scirocco | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Gio 04-16 | no | 0h | 4 kt | termica | 0/3 | ±1kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Ven 04-17 | no | 0h | 5 kt | termica | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Sab 04-18 | no | 0h | 7 kt | scirocco | 0/3 | ±2kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Dom 04-19 | no | 0h | 8 kt | scirocco | 1/3 | ±2kt | ★★★☆☆ | |
| Lun 04-20 | no | 0h | 6 kt | bora | 1/3 | ±4kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mar 04-21 | no | 0h | 11 kt | bora | 1/3 | ±3kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mer 04-22 | no | 0h | 8 kt | bora | 1/3 | ±3kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Gio 04-23 | no | 0h | 10 kt | scirocco | 0/3 | ±0kt | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Ven 04-24 | great | 19h | 03-22 | 30 kt | termica | 2/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ |
| Sab 04-25 | no | 0h | 8 kt | termica | 0/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Dom 04-26 | no | 0h | 7 kt | scirocco | 0/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Lun 04-27 | no | 0h | 6 kt | scirocco | 0/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mar 04-28 | no | 0h | 7 kt | scirocco | 0/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ | |
| Mer 04-29 | good | 6h | 07-13 | 14 kt | bora | 2/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ |
| Gio 04-30 | good | 4h | 01-02, 10-13 | 13 kt | bora | 2/2 | ? | ★☆☆☆☆ |
Ven 04-24 is the most promising day: 19h kiteable, peak 30 kts, regime termica.
Recent days when the forecast called it right
Latest sessions where the forecast matched the observed peak within 30% at 3 out of 5 lead times (24h, 12h, 6h, 3h, 1h) and kites were spotted on the webcam. One photo per day, refreshed hourly with the best frame.
Forecast wind issued N hours before the peak:
| 24h out | 12h out | 6h out | 3h out | 1h out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 kts | 13 kts | 12 kts | 13 kts | 16 kts |
Forecast wind issued N hours before the peak:
| 24h out | 12h out | 6h out | 3h out | 1h out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 kts | 19 kts | 16 kts | 18 kts | 26 kts |
© Luca Adria Wind Nowcasting